Sacramento vs. Louisville City: Tactical Analysis
04/05: Sacramento’s line up, the good, the bad, and what stood out
The Lineup:
This is starting to become a bit of a trend, isn’t it? This is the third straight match that Sacramento has dropped points after the 85th minute, with a combined six points being lost in those three matches. That could really hurt down the stretch, though it’s not all doom and gloom — if you had offered me a draw against both perennial title challengers Louisville and current title holders Colorado Springs before the season had started, I would have taken that offer with no hesitation. The Tulsa game is the one that probably stings the worst, though Tulsa is off to a fiery 3-0-1 start that few expected. So there are positives for the Quails going forward.
Collins’ lined up Sacramento in what is becoming his familiar Sacramento look - a fluid 3 at the back, a midfield of 4 with two in the center of the pitch and two out wide, and a hard pressing front 3. Kleemann’s position in the center of the backline is particularly interesting - he’s sitting much further back then the rest of the defense, and this enables the rest of the defenders to press attackers higher up field while he covers back. Usually, the downside of this is fewer offside traps, but Louisville was still offside 4 times to Sacramento’s 1.
The Good:
Republic continues to employ its high intensity press, especially early in games, and it worked wonders with slowing any Louisville counter attacks. Look at this play:
The counter is fully on here; Louisville wins the ball back while most of Republic’s attackers and midfielders are still up field. But Parano puts in an incredible effort to drop from his attacking position to re-enforce the midfield, which enables Willey and Felipe to double team the player on the ball. Meanwhile, the Sacramento attacking players mark the players in purple still in the back, isolating the Louisville player with the ball in the middle of the pitch. It takes all of the bite out of the visitor’s counter-attack, and all they can really do with the ball is pass it outside and back.
And that’s without yet mentioning that Republic’s counter-press directly led to their goal:
What a run and press by Herrera, who directly creates this goal! He doesn’t get the assist here, but he really deserves it.
All of Republic’s pressing play caused Louisville to make consistent attempts to play over the top all match, but I really think this is where Republic’s defense feels the most comfortable. This is where Collins’ system shines in my opinion - a pressing midfield and attacking front forces teams to play the long ball, which Republic counters by employing a back 3 (and sometimes 5) that are really able to handle the long ball well. Look at this play early in the first half:
Louisville were held up at midfield moments before this, and opted to punt the ball over the top to their 2 attacking players. But Republic’s backline is already in a great position to handle this - Gurr (circled) follows the runner tightly from his position in the midfield, and all 3 center backs are easily able to cover any extra space. You can also really see how fluid this 3 at the back formation is; depending on who tracks back, you can easily pivot to a back 4 or back 5.
This match is also the first time this season that Sacramento has lost the aerial battle, winning 45% of duels to Louisville's 55%. This doesn’t end up mattering though, because they compensate for this by winning 61% of the ground duels, easily clearing anything that Louisville do end up winning in the air.
3 players really have stood out to me as my early season MVP’s and all 3 put in great shifts during this match - Willey, Kleeman, Benítez:
Willey - Even though he’s only 17 years old, his midfield work both off and on the ball have been incredible so far. On the offensive side, he boasts a passing accuracy of 78.6%, which is the 3rd highest on the team for players who have played each match. On the defensive side, he leads the club in successful tackles per 90 and is second in possession won in the final third per 90.
Kleeman - He has an average match rating of 7.15, is winning 66% of his duels, and has been instrumental in commanding Republic’s backline. He wins 76% of all balls in the air, which is why this team feels so comfortable with allowing opposing midfielders to play the long ball.
Benítez- With an average match rating of 7.03, he has kept the left defensive part of the pitch locked down through the first 4 matches. He is also the defender that is most likely to step forward to disrupt an opposing attacker; he leads the club in tackles, interceptions, and duels won. Also, despite being 5’6, he’s winning 68% of his aerial duels.
The Bad:
I don’t hate how Republic played this game, so there isn’t actually a ton of bad here. The most obvious is Republic’s inability to close out games - as I mentioned earlier, 6 dropped points in 3 games, 5 of those from winning positions, could really sting as we get into October. But it’s hard to find a single cause to blame for the last 3 games of late defensive breakdowns. Against Colorado, it was 2 PK’s, one of which was shaky at best. Against Tulsa, it was just a mismarked corner kick. Against Louisville in this match, Vitiello’s aggressiveness really causes this goal:
It’s hard to be too frustrated with him here; you can argue that staying back is the right move, but if he gets a good punch on this ball, there’s no conversation to be had. Vitiello has always been one of the more adventurous keepers in the USL, but this naturally comes with its low’s as often as it does its high’s.
It’s hard to tell if these late defensive breakdowns are a result of exhaustion, bad luck, or bad mentality; it’s probably some combination of the three. Either way, these mistakes don’t become major issues if the Quails score more. While the shots on target percentage was a bit better this match compared to the first 3 matches of the season, 33.3% vs. 22.7%, Republic aren’t getting good shots on target.
This match had 9 shots, only 3 on target, but 7 of the 9 shots were outside of the box. Felipe’s numbers for this in particular aren’t good; in the 4 games this season, he has 9 shots with 0 on target, and many of them look like this:
There’s 5 defensive players between him and the goal, including one right in front of him. I’m not sure if him shooting from the top of the box is part of Collins’ game plan or not, but so far, it has not yielded results. At best, it occasionally results in a corner kick - at worst, it’s a turnover of possession that gives the opposition a chance to counter. And Felipe is not the only one; through 4 matches, Republic have 53 shots, of which only 13 have been on target for 5 goals. That’s not great.
What Stood Out:
While the way Republic ended this game certainly felt like a punch to the chest, I’d have easily taken a draw for this match if you had offered it to me before the game. Louisville haven’t lost a game yet this season and are easily one of the best (and most standout) teams in the USL. What this game really showed us was that this Republic squad can easily hang with the best teams in the league. I would not be surprised if this is a preview of the USL Final
The standings currently have us in in 8th, and with San Antonio is off to a hot 4-0-1 start, the Quails next 5 games are going to be crucial. While the first 4 matches were probably the most difficult stretch of the season, the next 5 make up likely the easiest:
Away @ Orange County - 4/12
Home vs. El Farolito - 4/16 (US Open Cup)
Away @ Phoenix - 4/19
Home vs. AV Alta - 4/26 (USL Jägermeister Cup)
Away @ Oakland - 5/04
That’s 3 away USL matches and 2 home cup matches. Both cup matches should be on the easier side for Republic. El Farolito is an amateur side, and while Republic need to take it seriously, they should win that match comfortably. We already did a preview of that match here. Meanwhile, AV Alta is a USL-1 side in their first season.
The 3 away USL matches are crucial for the Republic, though. It’s the bottom 3 teams in the West, who have a combined 2 wins between the 3 of them, and getting these away games out of the way early in the season also means easier home games later in the year. The Quails shouldn’t be happy with any less than 7 points from these 3 matches.